14-July-2010
Portfolio Media Releases, The Economy
Topics: Labor’s dubious budget numbers, Federal Election timing, Coalition’s preparedness.
E&OE
FRAN KELLY:
Andrew Robb is the Shadow Finance Minister and he joins us now. Andrew Robb welcome back to breakfast.
ANDREW ROBB:
Good Morning Fran. Thank you.
FRAN KELLY:
It looks as though the Treasurer will give you the figures you’re after today on the mining tax. Are you happy to suspend your suspicions until then?
ANDREW ROBB:
I wouldn’t hold your breath about getting something that’s going to be convincing or really provide answers to lots of questions. You know, we’ve spent now several weeks since they’ve finalised this tax and it’s just been a bunch of spin, no detail, Treasurer’s gone into hiding for two weeks to I think avoid the scrutiny.
Clearly from what we can see, it is a sham, the estimated revenue, the head of BHP yesterday basically confirming that they will pay little more than $300 million in the first two years per year.
Well that means the prospect of getting $10.5 billion is just not on. I mean they’d be lucky to get a billion dollars out of tax from this new tax which puts a great big cloud over the whole forecasts, the suggestion that they will get into surplus.
So let’s see what they’ve got to say today, but you know it is two weeks into the new financial year and they’re already changing the numbers. This is amateur hour stuff.
FRAN KELLY:
Well they’re going to be releasing a Treasury update at some point during the election campaign anyway. They have to, don’t they?
ANDREW ROBB:
Well they do, but you know, here we are at a major review of numbers. You just can’t believe it. We said back at the time of the budget that this was a house of cards this budget. And now we’ve got what I would think would be close to a $10 billion hole as far as the mining tax is concerned.
People just cannot believe Wayne Swan anymore. I mean, it’s getting to a farcical situation where we’ll have three sets of estimates in the space of seven or eight weeks.
FRAN KELLY:
If it is a $10 billion black hole and I’m not suggesting it is, I mean the Government will release the figures and I guess everyone will pore over them to make of them what they will. But you’re obviously suggesting that the Government will make these figures up basically so they have a good story to tell in the run up to an election. Would you then not use that $10 billion which you think is phony, is a sham, for your costing in your election promises?
ANDREW ROBB:
Well, whatever they do come up with, we will have to measure our budgets against that.
FRAN KELLY:
But you don’t believe it.
ANDREW ROBB:
We haven’t got the capability Fran to make these forecasts. But what they have got is growth assumptions for tax revenue for a 12 per cent increase this year and then 11 per cent on top of that the following year and eight per cent on top of that the year after. Now this is in the midst of really black clouds starting to emerge out of Europe, the US economy still stalling.
Anybody who has got any experience in the world trade and global market is telling us that there’s a very real prospect, very real prospect of some sort of double dip, perhaps within 18 months or two years.
Now these budget forecasts and I’ll bet the revised ones, which sound like they’re going to give an even better result, they’re just heroic assumptions. You cannot believe them.
FRAN KELLY:
Well on that face and if the black economic clouds are gathering and these are going to be heroic assumptions we get from the Treasurer today, will the Coalition be restrained in your election spending, in your promising? Will you be responsible and say we don’t believe this is the outlook so we’re not going to make these pledges?
ANDREW ROBB:
Well any improvement in the numbers today should go to the bottom line. They should pay off Labor’s, or start to pay off Labor’s hundred billion dollar debt. They should go against the deficit and go towards reducing the debt in due course.
Now if there are improvements in numbers today, that’s what we will do with those numbers, I bet it’s not what will happen though with the Government. They will use that. They’ve already spent the mining tax and there’ no one who believes that the revenue now from the mining tax would go anywhere near $10 billion, yet Labor’s already spent that, not only in the forward estimates but beyond.
FRAN KELLY:
Okay well I guess we’ll wait to see what Wayne Swan gives us on that today. But talking of elections and you’ve had a bit to do with elections in the past, you’re a former Federal Director of the Liberal Party. We’re all talking about election timing. What do you think the Prime Minister should do? Should she go straight to the polls to get a mandate from the people that she doesn’t yet have as Tony Abbott keeps pointing out? Or should she hold off and fix up the problems that you keep pointing out that the Government has with the mining tax, with her offshore processing proposal? What’s your view?
ANDREW ROBB:
If Julia Gillard runs off to the polls it will convince people that the change of leadership was no more than a political fix to get them through an election and not an attempt to change the direction and the policy making process of this Government.
So if we see something called this week or next week or in the next three or four weeks, what the Government is really confirming is that they take the community as idiots and that they have put Julia Gillard in there purely as a political fix, to get a honeymoon, to be the first woman Prime Minister, and to surf in on a wave of interest in a new Prime Minister and not put someone in there who will actually tackle some of the very serious problems none of which have been dealt with in the first three years of the Labor Government.
FRAN KELLY:
Isn’t there value though in her going and asking the people to endorse her? I mean wouldn’t you prefer that you get the chance for the electorate to judge whether they prefer Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard. They haven’t voted for either of them.
ANDREW ROBB:
We would prefer that the people made a judgement on the competence of the new prime minister, not on the fascination of someone who happens to be our first woman prime minister. It’s in the interest of the nation. Let’s approach elections and policy making in the interest of the nation, not in the interest of the Labor Party.
FRAN KELLY:
Well talking about confidence, how ready is the Coalition? Because it does seem incredible that the Liberal Party is still yet to pre-select candidates in two outer western Sydney seats, Parramatta and Greenway and last night picked the candidate for Lindsay, as a former Party Director you’d be appalled at this.
ANDREW ROBB:
Well we are well prepared around the country.
FRAN KELLY:
Except you don’t have all your candidates.
ANDREW ROBB:
There’s always a situation with a seat or two on both sides of politics, often for local reasons. They may not have been pre-selected or you’ve changed candidates in mid- course because you’ve decided that they’re just not up to it. So there are all these sorts of issues.
But overwhelmingly around the country we’ve had people in place for many months, sometimes over 12 months, working very strongly and we are well prepared. And on that basis we are ready to provide an alternative government.
FRAN KELLY:
Okay, and do you agree with Tony Abbott that you will win Eden Monaro?
ANDREW ROBB:
I think it’s very winnable. I do think that we’ve got in David Gazard somebody who’s got an exceptional record that he’s bringing to that election. And the local member just looks like he got into something that he didn’t realise what was going to be involved. He’s shown a lot more interest in his Parliamentary Secretary job than he has in servicing the electorate.
FRAN KELLY:
And if you win Eden Monaro you win government.
ANDREW ROBB:
Well it’s a bellwether seat. It’s not guaranteed but that’s the way things have happened. We’re, look Fran, we’re coming from a long way behind but we’re going to be very competitive.
Already with the change of leadership, what the interesting thing is our primary vote has not moved. In yesterday’s polling it was still at 42 per cent. We’re within reach but we’ve got a lot of work to do.
FRAN KELLY:
Alright Andrew Robb, thank you very much for joining us.
ANDREW ROBB:
Thanks very much Fran.